Hillary Clinton vaporizes the Democratic field in TheRUN2016/cygnal Iowa caucus flashpoll, leaving Vice President Joe Biden in her dust by a staggering 48 points.
Clinton’s dominant position in the first-in-the-nation caucus state will surprise no one. The former Secretary of State has held a large double-digit lead in virtually every Democratic primary poll conducted since she left the administration on Feb. 1.
“No one is even in the same realm as Hillary,” said Brent Buchanan, managing partner of cyngal, the Alabama-based Republican consulting and polling firm that conducted the survey exclusively for The RUN.
Clinton took 56 percent of potential Democratic Iowa caucus goers while Biden earned just 8 percent.
The only other Democrat registering in the Hawkeye State: Liberal heroine Elizabeth Warren, the first-term senior senator from Massachusetts. She’s third, topping both Govs. Andrew Cuomo and Martin O’Malley and only slightly trailing Biden.
Perhaps most surprising: Almost a third of Democrats — 30 percent — chose “unsure,” declining to sign on with the front-running Clinton. That number is only 6 percent lower than uncommitted Republicans.
The full results of the 2,175 Iowa Democrats surveyed July 10-12 are below, with the actual number of votes (in parentheses):
Question 3: As of today, who do you see yourself most likely supporting in the 2016 Democratic Caucus?
Hillary Clinton 56% (1209)
Joe Biden 8% (170)
Elizabeth Warren 5% (109)
Andrew Cuomo 1% (25)
Kirsten Gillibrand .5% (12)
Martin O’Malley .2% (4)
Unsure 30% (646)
Read the results of TheRUN2016/cygnal Iowa survey of Republicans HERE.
Of those voters who believe the country is definitely going in the right direction, Clinton’s support jumps 1o points to 66 percent. Yet Democratic voters with a high propensity to participate in primaries gave Clinton her lowest support number at 45 percent, a small but potential vulnerability.
Younger voters between ages 18-29 gave Clinton her highest level of support with 69 percent.
Considering their party currently occupies the White House, it’s not jarring that Iowa Democrats are overwhelmingly optimistic about the country. Eighty-one percent of respondents believe the nation is on the right track. Compare that to the 89 percent of Iowa Republicans who think the country is going in the wrong direction.
The economy is the top issue for Iowa Democrats (35 percent), followed by healthcare (18 percent) and Medicare and Social Security (11 percent). Claiming the top spot for Republicans on that question was government spending. Just 6 percent of Democrats pinpointed government spending as their top priority to tackle.
A Public Policy Polling survey taken in Iowa earlier this month put Clinton’s voteshare notably higher at 71 percent.
Buchanan attributes the difference to the sample size. TheRUN2016/cyngal surveyed 2,175 Iowa Democrats and has a margin of error of just 2.1 percent; PPP’s sample was only 260.
The Flash polling methodology used by cygnal on behalf of TheRUN2016.com, was completed using rigorous IVR data collection methodology and then supplemented with live cell connects to produce a large, reflective sample.